Home / Signals / Amend-and-extend deals
Amend-and-extend deals
Shadow default rate estimated above 10%
- Status
- watch
- Trend
- steady
- Layer
- 3. Loans quietly go soft
- Evidence dated
- Oct 15, 2026
- Source
- Valuation Research: Q3 2026 private credit update
- Checked
- Oct 26, 2026
Score
Score 50 of 100 · news 50. Hard data is scored against its own last few years: a normal day is 0, worse than 90% of its history is 80.
What happened
Valuation Research still counts more than 10% of valued private credit borrowers as having done, or being about to do, a material amendment. That keeps loans out of default on paper without fixing cash flow, and the estimate's contested. Nothing new found today.
What we watch
Amend-and-extend deals, maturity extensions and shadow defaults. Rising is watch or flashing, depending on how widespread.
Past readings
| Checked | Status | Trend | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2026 | watch | steady | Shadow default rate estimated above 10% |
| Oct 25, 2026 | watch | worsening | Shadow default rate estimated above 10% |