Reading for Oct 25, 2026
The stress index was 55 out of 100 (Elevated). 2 of 6 layers are flashing: weakest borrowers and funds. The chain reaction isn’t complete yet: collateral isn’t flashing.
| Layer | Score | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Collateral loses value | 25 | calm |
| Weakest borrowers crack | 87.5 | flashing |
| Loans quietly go soft | 50 | watch |
| Funds feel pressure | 100 | flashing |
| Plumbing tightens | 66.5 | watch |
| People behave strangely | 0 | calm |
Signals that day
| Signal | Status | Trend | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| GPU rental prices | calm | easing | H100 about $2.88/hr, up 44% since December |
| Hyperscaler lease pullbacks | watch | worsening | No outright cancellations found; delay penalties now above $5M a day |
| Neocloud stocks | flashing | worsening | CoreWeave, Nebius and IREN each down 30%+ in October |
| Neocloud bonds | flashing | worsening | CoreWeave 2031 notes yield a record 15.76% |
| Customer concentration | watch | easing | Microsoft about 45% of CoreWeave revenue, down from 72% |
| Delayed projects | flashing | worsening | Roughly 30–50% of 2026 US capacity delayed or canceled |
| PIK interest share | watch | steady | Mixed in Q2 filings; Q3 reports due in early November |
| Amend-and-extend deals | watch | worsening | Shadow default rate estimated above 10% |
| Marks vs market prices | watch | worsening | BDCs mark loans at 97.6% of cost; the market prices them far lower |
| Redemption gates | flashing | worsening | Gates at several managers at once |
| Public BDC discounts | flashing | worsening | Sector about 29% below stated NAV |
| Credit default swaps | flashing | worsening | CoreWeave 5-yr CDS about 1,145bp; Oracle at a record |
| Pulled deals | flashing | worsening | Data center financing reported frozen after the CoreWeave rout |
| Bank lines to funds | watch | worsening | Banks raising back-leverage costs and marking down collateral |
| Downgrades and insurer exposure | watch | steady | Rules tightening on $1.2T of insurer private credit; no downgrade wave yet |
| Senior departures | calm | steady | No CFO or senior exits found at major neoclouds or AI lenders |
| Late filings, auditor changes, restatements | calm | steady | None found |