Home / Markets
Markets
Prices, spreads, recession odds and power, in one place.
Market tape
Daily closes. Neoclouds are the canary; the spenders pay them, the BDCs hold the loans, and the managers run the funds.
| Name | Group | Close | Vs a week ago | Vs 1-yr high | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CoreWeave CRWV | Neoclouds and miners | $53.41 | −12.6% | −62% | Oct 26 |
| Nebius NBIS | Neoclouds and miners | $152.19 | −10.6% | −47% | Oct 26 |
| IREN IREN | Neoclouds and miners | $24.39 | −12.0% | −68% | Oct 26 |
| Applied Digital APLD | Neoclouds and miners | $17.62 | −8.5% | −64% | Oct 26 |
| Cipher Mining CIFR | Neoclouds and miners | $7.64 | −14.5% | −74% | Oct 26 |
| Oracle ORCL | Big AI spenders | $124.67 | −3.8% | −56% | Oct 26 |
| Microsoft MSFT | Big AI spenders | $525.74 | −1.5% | −3% | Oct 26 |
| Meta META | Big AI spenders | $632.66 | −10.3% | −19% | Oct 26 |
| Nvidia NVDA | Big AI spenders | $214.24 | −1.3% | −10% | Oct 26 |
| Listed BDCs BIZD | BDCs and junk bonds | $11.98 | +1.4% | −20% | Oct 26 |
| Junk bonds HYG | BDCs and junk bonds | $77.19 | +0.5% | −5% | Oct 26 |
| Ares Capital ARCC | BDCs and junk bonds | $18.67 | +1.4% | −11% | Oct 26 |
| Blue Owl Capital OBDC | BDCs and junk bonds | $10.09 | +2.0% | −25% | Oct 26 |
| Blackstone Secured Lending BXSL | BDCs and junk bonds | $23.14 | −1.5% | −18% | Oct 26 |
| Blackstone BX | Private credit managers | $119.26 | +11.4% | −27% | Oct 26 |
| Apollo APO | Private credit managers | $116.54 | +5.0% | −24% | Oct 26 |
| Ares Management ARES | Private credit managers | $123.26 | +9.1% | −31% | Oct 26 |
| Blue Owl OWL | Private credit managers | $9.40 | +4.9% | −44% | Oct 26 |
Credit gauges
Straight from the government’s own data (the Fed and the Treasury’s Office of Financial Research), free to reuse. Spreads are what borrowers pay over Treasurys, so wider means lenders are nervous.
| Gauge | Now | Status | Vs 3 months ago | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Credit stress (OFR) | −0.87 | calm | +0.32 | Oct 22, 2026 | OFR stress index, credit part |
| Corporate bond spread (Fed) | 93bp | calm | +7bp | Sep 1, 2026 | Fed GZ credit spread |
| Bond fear premium (Fed) | -38bp | calm | −11bp | Sep 1, 2026 | Fed excess bond premium |
| Recession odds (Fed model) | 9% | calm | −2.4 pts | Sep 1, 2026 | Fed excess bond premium model |
| Banks tightening loans | 0.0% | calm | −8.1 pts | Jul 1, 2026 | FRED DRTSCILM |
| Bank loans to nonbanks | +19.6% | calm | −1.3 pts | Oct 14, 2026 | FRED LNFACBW027SBOG |
Power and the grid
A data center is only worth what it can plug in. Every month the power doesn’t show up is a month a borrower pays interest on an empty building.
| Reading | Value | Status | What it means | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Big power hookup requests · Texas (ERCOT) | 498 GW | watch | 498 GW across 688 requests, up from 474 GW in June. Roughly 90% of it is data centers. | Jul 29 | Baxtel: Texas grid audit pauses new data center approvals across ERCOT |
| Requests that look ready · Texas (ERCOT) | 65 GW | watch | Only 150 requests (65 GW) passed the first screen for base-load service. 294 GW didn't even have a qualifying study. Most of the queue is a wish list. | Jul 29 | Baxtel: Texas grid audit pauses new data center approvals across ERCOT |
| Actually connected · Texas (ERCOT) | 7.5 GW | watch | About 7.5 GW connected or at final approval, against a queue that was already 230 GW. That gap is the delay risk lenders are underwriting. | Dec 13 | Introl: Texas data center bubble, 220 GW in queue, 7.5 GW connected |
| Capacity price, 2028/29 · Mid-Atlantic (PJM) | 325 $/MW-day | flashing | Cleared at the $325/MW-day cap for the third auction in a row. Power is the bottleneck, and it's getting pricier. | Jul 14 | PJM Inside Lines: capacity auction procures 138,318 MW |
| Short of the reliability target · Mid-Atlantic (PJM) | 6,831 MW | flashing | The auction came up 6,831 MW short, and only 525 MW of new generation cleared. Forecast peak load rose about 2,000 MW, mostly on data centers. | Jul 14 | PJM Inside Lines: capacity auction procures 138,318 MW |
| Power plants waiting to connect · United States | 2,061 GW | calm | About 2,061 GW of generation and storage waiting, down roughly 10% in 2025. Gas requests jumped 86%. Only 13% of what applied in 2000–2020 ever got built. | Dec 31 | Berkeley Lab: Queued Up, 2026 edition |