Stress index 47, no change: Microsoft's $25B bond draws $115B

Microsoft sells $25B of bonds on $115B of orders

The index holds at 47 with no status changes, and markets haven't traded since Friday. Pulled deals, at 61.5, is still the closest to tipping, though Microsoft's $25B bond shows the door's wide open for the biggest names.

Stress index: 47 out of 100, Elevated, unchanged. 2 of 6 layers are flashing: weakest borrowers and funds. The chain reaction isn’t complete yet: collateral isn’t flashing.

Layers today, score and 1-day move: Collateral 34 calm (+0.1) · Weakest borrowers 78 flashing · Loans 40 watch · Funds 77 flashing · Plumbing 44 watch · People 12 calm

Since yesterday

• Microsoft sells $25B of bonds, its first US investment-grade deal since 2017, on about $115B of peak orders: TechTimes: Tech Stocks Lost $1 Trillion After Azure's 48% Met Expectations, Not Beat Them (Nov 2), Oct 29 · Plumbing tightens (article)
• An Apollo-managed entity commits about $40B to buy GPUs and related gear and lease them to SpaceX for about 5 to 5.25 years: TechCrunch: SpaceX locks in $40B GPU financing deal with Apollo, Oct 26 · Collateral loses value (article)
• Nebius takes a $3.5B debt facility from Citi that matures in October 2027, as its CEO says some debt and asset-backed money has dried up: Stocktwits via Yahoo Finance: Nebius CEO Admits Neocloud Financing Has Tightened, Oct 22 · Weakest borrowers crack (article)
• Microsoft drops its deal to anchor Nscale's Loughton, UK site, with 23,040 Nvidia GPUs planned, after grid officials said power may not arrive until the 2030s: The Star (Reuters): Microsoft pulls out of UK data center deal with Nscale, Oct 19 · Weakest borrowers crack (article)

On the line

• Public BDC discounts: 30.4 (calm), 7.1 below the watch line (37.5)

The tape: Oct 30 close vs Oct 29

• Junk bonds (HYG): $77.43, −0.2% on the day, +0.5% over 5 days, 5% below its high
• Listed BDCs (BIZD): $12.39, −0.7% on the day, +3.9% over 5 days, 18% below its high
• Private credit managers: −1.1% on the day, +4.6% over 5 days, 29% below its high
• Neoclouds (5): −9.4% on the day, −3.2% over 5 days, 63% below its high
• CoreWeave: $54.87, −9.7% on the day, +1.2% over 5 days, 60% below its high
• Oracle: $130.67, −6.4% on the day, +3.6% over 5 days, 49% below its high

Flashing now (5)

None got new data since yesterday. The newest is 3 days old. They stay flashing until new data says otherwise.

• Neocloud stocks (data from Oct 30, 3 days old): CoreWeave -9.7% to $54.87 Friday; all five tracked names down 26-53% in 21 sessions (source)
• Neocloud bonds (data from Oct 30, 3 days old): CoreWeave 2031s yield 14.9%; Volta's $5B loan now above 11%, still under the 12% line (source)
• Delayed projects (data from Oct 28, 5 days old): Texas pause holds up a $5-7B bond sale for an Anthropic-leased site; audit report due Dec 10 (source)
• Redemption gates (data from Oct 30, 3 days old): Q3 requests eased to 11.5% of NAV but about 60% still went unfilled (source)
• Credit default swaps (data from Oct 30, 3 days old): CoreWeave 5-yr CDS about 1,040bp; Oracle 304bp, both in S&P data (source)

More on this: Where can I find free data on BDC redemption requests, tender offers and discounts to book value?

The gauges

• Credit stress (OFR): −0.92 (−0.03 vs prior print), Oct 28 print; above zero is more stress than usual
• Listed BDCs vs book, by size: −9.5% (±0.0 pts vs last issue), 5 of 10 more than 10% below
• Funds running cash-out windows: 55 (±0 vs last issue), last 90 days of SEC filings
• Funds paying out less than asked: 1 (±0 vs last issue), lowest: Barings Private Credit Corp paid 46.84%

Slow gauges, latest print: Bond fear premium −38bp (Sep 2026) · Corporate bond spread 93bp (Sep 2026) · Recession odds 9% (Sep 2026) · Bank loans to nonbanks +20.3% (Oct 21) · Banks tightening loans 0.0% (Jul 2026) · Median PIK share 11.0% (quarterly)

Worth watching today

• CoreWeave reports Nov 11, with its five-year CDS last seen around 1,040bp and its stock about 7% above the $51.24 52-week low.
• Q3 NAVs from the BDCs land in the first half of November; most of the 9.5% discount still leans on June NAVs.
• ERCOT and the PUC report on the Texas audit by Dec 10, and the delayed $5-7B Anthropic-tied bond sale is waiting behind that freeze.

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Follow the debt. Not a timing tool. Not financial advice. Reuse under CC BY 4.0: credit Glitch in the Credit with a link.