Stress index 50: BDC discounts and pulled deals drop to watch

50 out of 100, Elevated, down 2. The index slipped to 50 from 52, mostly because we now grade BDC discounts on our own number (12.5% below book, weighted by size) instead of Mercer's 29%, and the pulled-deals data cooled a bit. The neocloud selloff hasn't let up though: CoreWeave closed Monday at $55.19, down 37% in a month and a hair above its 52-week low.

What changed overnight

• Public BDC discounts went flashing → watch: Listed BDCs 12.5% below book, weighted by size source
• Pulled deals went flashing → watch: Data center financing reported frozen after the CoreWeave rout source

Flashing right now

• Neocloud stocks: CoreWeave $55.19, down 37% in a month; IREN down 42% source
• Neocloud bonds: CoreWeave 2031 notes yield a record 15.76% source
• Delayed projects: Roughly 30–50% of 2026 US capacity delayed or canceled source
• Redemption gates: Gates at several managers at once source
• Credit default swaps: CoreWeave 5-yr CDS about 1,145bp; Oracle at a record source

The numbers

• Credit stress (OFR): −0.87 (above zero is more stress than usual)
• Bond fear premium (Fed): -38bp (monthly, as of 2026-09-01)
• Bank loans to nonbanks: +19.6% (over a year)
• Listed BDCs vs book, weighted by size: −12% (6 of 10 more than 10% below)
• Median PIK share: 11.0% (was 9.9% a year ago)
• Private credit funds running cash-out windows: 55 (last 90 days: 55 offers, 6 updates)
• Funds paying out less than asked: 1 (lowest: Barings Private Credit Corp paid 46.84% of requests)
• Recession odds, next 12 months (Fed model): 9% (monthly, as of 2026-09-01)

Worth watching today

• CoreWeave earnings on Nov 11: financing plans and whether Meta or OpenAI change their pace.
• Q3 BDC reports in early November: PIK shares and NAV marks against today's 12.5% discount.
• Q4 tender results from non-traded BDCs, after 10 of 16 couldn't meet Q2 requests.

Not a timing tool. Not financial advice.