# Glitch in the Credit: reading for Oct 26, 2026

As of Oct 26, 2026, the AI credit stress index is 52 out of 100 (Elevated). That's down 3 since Oct 25, 2026. 2 of 6 layers are flashing: weakest borrowers and funds. The chain reaction isn’t complete yet: collateral isn’t flashing.

Chain reaction: 2 of 3 links flashing (collateral, weakest borrowers, funds).

## 1. Collateral loses value: calm (25 of 100)

### GPU rental prices: calm, steady
H100 about $2.88/hr, up 44% since December

Nothing new from the big indexes since Oct 24, when Silicon Data had H100 at $2.88 and B200 at $6.45 an hour and Ornn had B200 up to $9.57 in October. Search snippets also show list prices going up, like Nebius lifting on-demand H100 to $4.50 from $3.85 on Oct 1 (unverified, didn't open the page). Collateral's still holding its value.
Source: FourWeekMBA: H100 rent hits $2.88 an hour https://fourweekmba.com/ai-nvidia-h100-rent-hits-2-88-an-hour-up-44-since-december/ (2026-10-24)

### Hyperscaler lease pullbacks: watch, steady
No outright cancellations found; delay penalties now above $5M a day

Still no hyperscaler lease cancellations turning up this month. What's changed this year is the terms: delay penalties went from about $1M a day early in 2026 to more than $5M a day by October, so developers whose projects slip eat the risk. Nothing new found today.
Source: Crypto Briefing: AI data center tenants want $5M a day for delays https://cryptobriefing.com/ai-data-center-tenants-delay-penalties/ (2026-10-24)

## 2. Weakest borrowers crack: flashing (83.9 of 100)

### Neocloud stocks: flashing, easing
CoreWeave $53.41, down 39% in a month; IREN down 45%

The Yahoo closes have CoreWeave at $53.41, a fresh 52-week low and down 39% in a month; Nebius is off 36%, IREN 45% (also at a 52-week low) and Cipher 57%. CoreWeave was sliding again premarket Monday after Morgan Stanley cut its target to $70 from $99 and Raymond James to $75 from $125, both on financing worries.
Source: StocksToTrade: CoreWeave slides as debt fears trump AI growth https://stockstotrade.com/news/coreweave-inc-crwv-news-2026_10_26/ (2026-10-26)

### Neocloud bonds: flashing, steady
CoreWeave 2031 notes yield a record 15.76%

CoreWeave's 9.75% 2031 notes were around 80 cents yielding about 15.6% on Oct 20, and a $2.75B 2031 bond hit a record 15.76%. Search snippets put the 2032s at about 78 cents and just over 16% (unverified). Either way it's distressed territory and nothing's getting better.
Source: Benzinga: CoreWeave bond yield hits record https://www.benzinga.com/markets/bonds/26/10/62541064/coreweave-debt-stress-mounts-bond-yield-hits-record-as-stock-suffers-44-billion-wipeout (2026-10-22)

### Customer concentration: watch, steady
Microsoft about 45% of CoreWeave revenue, down from 72%

Microsoft's down to about 45% of CoreWeave revenue from 72%, but the backlog's still lumpy: Meta about 40% of $99.4B and OpenAI about 25%. No sign of any of them paying slower or renegotiating. Nothing new today.
Source: Daloopa: CoreWeave customer mix https://daloopa.com/?p=15410 (2026-10-24)

### Delayed projects: flashing, steady
Roughly 30–50% of 2026 US capacity delayed or canceled

Of about 12 GW slated for 2026 in the US, only about 5 GW was under construction (Sightline; SemiAnalysis pushes back and says moratoria directly delay only about 1.5 GW). Local moratoria keep popping up: Bloomington, Ill. passed a six-month one and Aurora, Colo. votes on one Oct 26, per search snippets. New York's statewide moratorium from July 14 still stands.
Source: Stacker: Why nearly half of planned data centers are delayed https://keyt.com/stacker-technology/2026/10/19/tech-companies-need-more-data-centers-so-why-are-nearly-half-of-all-planned-projects-delayed-or-canceled/ (2026-10-19)

## 3. Loans quietly go soft: watch (57.5 of 100)

### PIK interest share: watch, steady
Mixed: Blue Owl's PIK share up to 7.9%, Hercules down to 8.3%

The SEC XBRL data for Q2 is mixed: Blue Owl Capital Corp's PIK share rose to 7.9% from 6.3%, Golub to 11.0% from 9.9% and Oaktree Specialty to 7.5% from 6.7%, while Hercules fell to 8.3% from 9.9%. Ares (15.2%) and FS KKR (12.5%) only have Q1 numbers so far. Q3 reports land in the first half of November.
Source: SEC EDGAR: Blue Owl Capital Corp XBRL company facts https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001655888.json (2026-06-30)

### Amend-and-extend deals: watch, steady
Shadow default rate estimated above 10%

Valuation Research still counts more than 10% of valued private credit borrowers as having done, or being about to do, a material amendment. That keeps loans out of default on paper without fixing cash flow, and the estimate's contested. Nothing new found today.
Source: Valuation Research: Q3 2026 private credit update https://www.valuationresearch.com/insights/private-credit-trends-q3-2026/ (2026-10-15)

### Marks vs market prices: watch, worsening
BDCs mark loans at 97.6% of cost; the market prices them far lower

BDCs carried loans at 97.57% of cost in Q2 while the market says otherwise: FS KKR trades at 57% of its June NAV, Prospect at 26% and Blue Owl Capital Corp at 71%, per today's closes. Moody's has 2026 maturities marked at 88.8% of cost. No new forced writedowns found.
Source: Reuters via Investing.com: private credit firms mark down more loans https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/us-private-credit-firms-mark-down-more-loans-4886397 (2026-09-30)

## 4. Funds feel pressure: flashing (93.3 of 100)

### Redemption gates: flashing, steady
Gates at several managers at once

Ten of 16 non-traded BDCs Fitch tracks couldn't meet Q2 requests, leaving about $15.6B unpaid, and Apollo's flagship capped withdrawals for a third straight quarter. EDGAR shows no new tender results since BIP Ventures (Oct 16) and Barings (Oct 6); Q4 tender offers should start showing up next month.
Source: Angel Investors Network: BDC redemption crisis, $15.6B gated https://angelinvestorsnetwork.com/alternative-investments/bdc-redemption-crisis-2026-private-credit-liquidity-gates (2026-10-20)

### Public BDC discounts: flashing, easing
Sector about 29% below stated NAV

Mercer had the listed sector near a 29% discount in late September, a COVID-era level. On today's closes against June NAVs, the ten names we track have a 12% median discount, but that's propped up by premium names like Main Street and Hercules; FS KKR (43%), Blue Owl (29%) and Oaktree Specialty (27%) are deep in the hole and BIZD is down 7% this month.
Source: Mercer Capital: what BDC discounts are signaling https://mercercapital.com/insights/posts/2026/public-prices-private-marks-what-bdc-discounts-are-signaling/ (2026-10-09)

### Credit default swaps: flashing, steady
CoreWeave 5-yr CDS about 1,145bp; Oracle at a record

CoreWeave's five-year CDS hit about 1,145bp on Oct 21 (peak 1,194bp), which prices in about 61% risk-neutral odds of default over five years at 40% recovery (Bloomberg put it above 60%). That's what the market charges for the risk, and it runs higher than real-world odds. A secondhand report has it easing back to about 1,088bp (unverified). Oracle's CDS set a record near 288–315bp in mid-October.
Source: CNBC: CoreWeave's market confidence erodes https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/21/coreweaves-market-confidence-erodes-as-bond-yields-spike-stock-sinks.html (2026-10-21)

## 5. Plumbing tightens: watch (54.6 of 100)

### Pulled deals: flashing, easing
Data center financing reported frozen after the CoreWeave rout

IFR says the CoreWeave rout froze data center financing, after Firmus, SB Energy and AirTrunk shelved IPOs in the month to Oct 16. Search snippets add a $6B Bridge Data Centres loan for Thailand put on hold Oct 13 because of a national construction pause (unverified). Some deals still clear, like Nebius's $3.5B 364-day facility.
Source: IFR: CoreWeave rout freezes data centre financing https://www.ifre.com/bonds/2502504/coreweave-rout-freezes-data-centre-financing (2026-10-23)

### Bank lines to funds: calm, easing
Banks raising back-leverage costs and marking down collateral

JPMorgan, Goldman and Barclays are reportedly charging more on back-leverage and marking down pledged loans, with spreads going from about 175bp to as much as 200bp over SOFR. But FRED's H.8 data shows bank loans to nonbanks still growing, to $2,105.8B on Oct 14 from $2,054.3B on Sept 9, and July's loan officer survey had net tightening at 0%. No outright line cuts.
Source: Troutman Pepper Locke: banks are pulling back https://www.troutman.com/insights/banks-are-pulling-back-what-private-credit-funds-need-to-know-now/ (2026-10-15)

### Downgrades and insurer exposure: watch, steady
Rules tightening on $1.2T of insurer private credit; no downgrade wave yet

The NAIC set a 45% capital charge on residual interests and can now override private letter ratings that are three or more notches off. Nearly half of 2026 data center bonds are junk. Still no downgrade wave or insurer fire sale found.
Source: Insurance Business: NAIC targets $1.2T in insurer private credit https://www.insurancebusinessmag.com/us/news/breaking-news/naic-targets-1-2-trillion-in-insurer-private-credit-with-tighter-solvency-rules-591242.aspx (2026-10-15)

## 6. People behave strangely: calm (0 of 100)

### Senior departures: calm, steady
No CFO or senior exits; KKR and Apollo 8-Ks were board adds

The only new officer 8-Ks at the names we watch are board appointments: KKR added Brian J. Lee as a director on Oct 26 and Apollo added Micky Malka effective Jan 1. No unexpected CFO or senior exits at CoreWeave, Nebius, IREN, Nscale or the big private credit shops.
Source: SEC EDGAR: KKR & Co. 8-K, Oct 26, 2026 https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1404912/000114036126040706/ef20084337_8k.htm (2026-10-26)

### Late filings, auditor changes, restatements: calm, steady
None found

The EDGAR sweep of 33 watched companies and funds turned up no late-filing notices, auditor changes, non-reliance or restatement items in six months, only officer changes and tender offers. Nothing in the news either.
Source: News and SEC filings search  (2026-10-26)

## GPU collateral cushion

- H100: rent $2.88 an hour (Silicon Data Neo-Cloud rental index (SDH100RT, SDB200RT), 2026-10-24, https://fourweekmba.com/ai-nvidia-h100-rent-hits-2-88-an-hour-up-44-since-december/) against a full cost of $2.34 and a cash cost of $0.76 (mid case): cushion 1.23×.
- B200: rent $6.45 an hour (Silicon Data Neo-Cloud rental index (SDH100RT, SDB200RT), 2026-10-24, https://fourweekmba.com/ai-nvidia-h100-rent-hits-2-88-an-hour-up-44-since-december/) against a full cost of $3.03 and a cash cost of $1.05 (mid case): cushion 2.13×.

Rents are third-party index prices as reported in the news; costs are ours. Method: https://glitchinthecredit.com/methodology/#gpu-collateral

## Credit gauges

- Credit stress (OFR): −0.87 (calm), +0.32 vs 3 months, 2026-10-22, OFR stress index, credit part (https://www.financialresearch.gov/financial-stress-index/)
- Corporate bond spread (Fed): 93bp (calm), +7bp vs 3 months, 2026-09-01, Fed GZ credit spread (https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/updating-the-recession-risk-and-the-excess-bond-premium-20161006.html)
- Bond fear premium (Fed): -38bp (calm), −11bp vs 3 months, 2026-09-01, Fed excess bond premium (https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/updating-the-recession-risk-and-the-excess-bond-premium-20161006.html)
- Recession odds (Fed model): 9% (calm), −2.4 pts vs 3 months, 2026-09-01, Fed excess bond premium model (https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/updating-the-recession-risk-and-the-excess-bond-premium-20161006.html)
- Banks tightening loans: 0.0% (calm), −8.1 pts vs 3 months, 2026-07-01, FRED DRTSCILM (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRTSCILM)
- Bank loans to nonbanks: +19.6% (calm), −1.3 pts vs 3 months, 2026-10-14, FRED LNFACBW027SBOG (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNFACBW027SBOG)

## BDC book check

- Prospect Capital (PSEC): price $1.49, NAV $5.71 (2026-06-30), −74% vs book, PIK share 11.4%
- FS KKR Capital (FSK): price $10.41, NAV $18.30 (2026-06-30), −43% vs book, PIK share 12.5%
- Blue Owl Capital (OBDC): price $10.00, NAV $14.26 (2026-06-30), −30% vs book, PIK share 7.9%
- Oaktree Specialty Lending (OCSL): price $11.40, NAV $15.70 (2026-06-30), −27% vs book, PIK share 7.5%
- Golub Capital BDC (GBDC): price $12.06, NAV $14.25 (2026-06-30), −15% vs book, PIK share 11.0%
- Blackstone Secured Lending (BXSL): price $22.93, NAV $25.53 (2026-06-30), −10% vs book, PIK share —
- Ares Capital (ARCC): price $18.58, NAV $19.35 (2026-06-30), −4% vs book, PIK share 15.2%
- Sixth Street Specialty (TSLX): price $17.00, NAV $16.24 (2026-06-30), +5% vs book, PIK share —
- Hercules Capital (HTGC): price $16.40, NAV $12.15 (2026-06-30), +35% vs book, PIK share 8.3%
- Main Street Capital (MAIN): price $53.21, NAV $33.92 (2026-06-30), +57% vs book, PIK share —

## Filings

Tender offers in 90 days: 55 offers and 6 updates from 55 non-traded BDCs.

- 2026-10-26 KKR & Co. Inc.: Exec or board change (8-K) https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1404912/000114036126040706/ef20084337_8k.htm
- 2026-10-20 Apollo Global Management, Inc.: Exec or board change (8-K) https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1858681/000095014226002794/eh260845009_8k.htm
- 2026-10-15 Blackstone Inc.: Exec or board change (8-K) https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1393818/000119312526422888/d59966d8k.htm
- 2026-09-17 Hercules Capital, Inc.: Exec or board change (8-K) https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1280784/000128078426000046/htgc-20260917.htm
- 2026-07-29 Core Scientific, Inc.: Exec or board change (8-K) https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1839341/000183934126000016/core-20260729.htm
- 2026-07-24 Blackstone Secured Lending Fund: Exec or board change (8-K) https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1736035/000121390026081414/ea029902801_8k-blackstone.htm
- 2026-07-24 Blackstone Private Credit Fund: Exec or board change (8-K) https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1803498/000121390026081411/ea029902701_8k-blackstone.htm
- 2026-07-02 Nvidia Corp: Exec or board change (8-K) https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000104581026000060/nvda-20260628.htm
- 2026-07-01 IREN Ltd: Exec or board change (8-K) https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1878848/000114036126027202/ef20077190_8k.htm
- 2026-06-18 Blackstone Private Credit Fund: Exec or board change (8-K) https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1803498/000121390026070098/ea029494301-8k_blackstone.htm
- 2026-06-18 Blackstone Secured Lending Fund: Exec or board change (8-K) https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1736035/000121390026070092/ea029494501-8k_blackstone.htm
- 2026-06-05 Microsoft Corp: Exec or board change (8-K) https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526258667/d26760d8k.htm
- 2026-05-29 KKR & Co. Inc.: Exec or board change (8-K) https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1404912/000114036126023322/ef20074998_8k.htm
- 2026-05-26 Core Scientific, Inc.: Exec or board change (8-K) https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1839341/000183934126000005/core-20260526.htm
- 2026-05-14 Microsoft Corp: Exec or board change (8-K) https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526224155/d125909d8k.htm
- 2026-05-12 Oracle Corp: Exec or board change (8-K) https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1341439/000119312526219708/d76569d8k.htm
- 2026-05-08 Nvidia Corp: Exec or board change (8-K) https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000104581026000028/nvda-20260507.htm
- 2026-05-05 Core Scientific, Inc.: Exec or board change (8-K) https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1839341/000162828026030553/core-20260430.htm
- 2026-05-04 Hercules Capital, Inc.: Exec or board change (8-K) https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1280784/000128078426000022/htgc-20260429.htm

## Power and the grid

- Big power hookup requests (Texas (ERCOT)): 498 GW, watch. 498 GW across 688 requests, up from 474 GW in June. Roughly 90% of it is data centers. Source: https://baxtel.com/news/texas-grid-audit-pauses-new-data-center-approvals-across-ercot (2026-07-29)
- Requests that look ready (Texas (ERCOT)): 65 GW, watch. Only 150 requests (65 GW) passed the first screen for base-load service. 294 GW didn't even have a qualifying study. Most of the queue is a wish list. Source: https://baxtel.com/news/texas-grid-audit-pauses-new-data-center-approvals-across-ercot (2026-07-29)
- Actually connected (Texas (ERCOT)): 7.5 GW, watch. About 7.5 GW connected or at final approval, against a queue that was already 230 GW. That gap is the delay risk lenders are underwriting. Source: https://introl.com/blog/texas-ercot-220gw-data-center-bubble-december-2025 (2025-12-13)
- Capacity price, 2028/29 (Mid-Atlantic (PJM)): 325 $/MW-day, flashing. Cleared at the $325/MW-day cap for the third auction in a row. Power is the bottleneck, and it's getting pricier. Source: https://insidelines.pjm.com/pjm-capacity-auction-procures-138318-mw-of-generation-resources-as-work-continues-to-address-growing-electricity-demand/ (2026-07-14)
- Short of the reliability target (Mid-Atlantic (PJM)): 6,831 MW, flashing. The auction came up 6,831 MW short, and only 525 MW of new generation cleared. Forecast peak load rose about 2,000 MW, mostly on data centers. Source: https://insidelines.pjm.com/pjm-capacity-auction-procures-138318-mw-of-generation-resources-as-work-continues-to-address-growing-electricity-demand/ (2026-07-14)
- Power plants waiting to connect (United States): 2,061 GW, calm. About 2,061 GW of generation and storage waiting, down roughly 10% in 2025. Gas requests jumped 86%. Only 13% of what applied in 2000–2020 ever got built. Source: https://emp.lbl.gov/publications/queued-2026-edition-characteristics (2025-12-31)

## Market tape

- CoreWeave (CRWV): $53.41 on 2026-10-26, −12.6% vs a week ago, −62% vs 1-year high
- Nebius (NBIS): $152.19 on 2026-10-26, −10.6% vs a week ago, −47% vs 1-year high
- IREN (IREN): $24.39 on 2026-10-26, −12.0% vs a week ago, −68% vs 1-year high
- Applied Digital (APLD): $17.62 on 2026-10-26, −8.5% vs a week ago, −64% vs 1-year high
- Cipher Mining (CIFR): $7.64 on 2026-10-26, −14.5% vs a week ago, −74% vs 1-year high
- Oracle (ORCL): $124.67 on 2026-10-26, −3.8% vs a week ago, −56% vs 1-year high
- Microsoft (MSFT): $525.74 on 2026-10-26, −1.5% vs a week ago, −3% vs 1-year high
- Meta (META): $632.66 on 2026-10-26, −10.3% vs a week ago, −19% vs 1-year high
- Nvidia (NVDA): $214.24 on 2026-10-26, −1.3% vs a week ago, −10% vs 1-year high
- Listed BDCs (BIZD): $11.98 on 2026-10-26, +1.4% vs a week ago, −20% vs 1-year high
- Junk bonds (HYG): $77.19 on 2026-10-26, +0.5% vs a week ago, −5% vs 1-year high
- Ares Capital (ARCC): $18.67 on 2026-10-26, +1.4% vs a week ago, −11% vs 1-year high
- Blue Owl Capital (OBDC): $10.09 on 2026-10-26, +2.0% vs a week ago, −25% vs 1-year high
- Blackstone Secured Lending (BXSL): $23.14 on 2026-10-26, −1.5% vs a week ago, −18% vs 1-year high
- Blackstone (BX): $119.26 on 2026-10-26, +11.4% vs a week ago, −27% vs 1-year high
- Apollo (APO): $116.54 on 2026-10-26, +5.0% vs a week ago, −24% vs 1-year high
- Ares Management (ARES): $123.26 on 2026-10-26, +9.1% vs a week ago, −31% vs 1-year high
- Blue Owl (OWL): $9.40 on 2026-10-26, +4.9% vs a week ago, −44% vs 1-year high

## Events

- 2026-10-24: CoreWeave, Nebius and IREN down 30%+ in October; Nvidia has $36B in neocloud backstops (CNBC, https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/24/nvidias-role-as-ai-financier-faces-first-big-test-as-neoclouds-take-market-hit.html)
- 2026-10-23: CoreWeave rout freezes data center financing (IFR, https://www.ifre.com/bonds/2502504/coreweave-rout-freezes-data-centre-financing)
- 2026-10-21: CoreWeave five-year CDS reaches about 1,145bp as bond yields spike (CNBC, https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/21/coreweaves-market-confidence-erodes-as-bond-yields-spike-stock-sinks.html)
- 2026-10-20: CoreWeave 2031 notes fall to about 80 cents, yielding 15.6%; shares at 17-month lows (Benzinga, https://www.benzinga.com/markets/tech/26/10/62470728/coreweave-bond-yields-15-5-percent-shares-17-month-lows)
- 2026-10-20: Korean cloud provider Elice Group drops 30% on its market debut (CNBC, https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/20/data-center-stocks-slide-as-korea-ipo-plunges-30percent-pressuring-tech-sentiment.html)
- 2026-10-16: Firmus, SB Energy and AirTrunk postpone or cancel IPOs; nearly half of 2026 data center bonds are junk (Forbes, https://www.forbes.com/sites/giacomotognini/2026/10/16/why-debt-laden-neoclouds-could-become-a-trillion-dollar-wework-20/)
- 2026-10-16: Nscale's data center delays show the risks for neoclouds ahead of its IPO (Bloomberg, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-10-16/nscale-ipo-data-center-delays-show-risks-for-the-neoclouds)
- 2026-10-15: CoreWeave CDS hit distress levels near 1,038bp; Oracle CDS set a record 288bp (CNBC, https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/15/coreweave-credit-default-swaps-hit-distress-levels-as-investors-sour-on-ai-debt.html)
- 2026-09-24: NAIC outlines tighter oversight of insurers' private credit in a letter to Sen. Warren (Willkie, https://www.willkie.com/publications/2026/09/the-latest-in-the-evolving-landscape-of-insurer-investment-regulation)
- 2026-07-14: New York imposes a statewide moratorium on hyperscale data centers (Tech Insider, https://tech-insider.org/us-ai-data-center-delays-cancellations-7gw-capacity-crisis-2026/)
- 2026-07-13: Prime Data Centers delays a $500M Nordic bond after investors balk at terms (Bloomberg, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-13/prime-data-centers-delays-planned-500-million-nordic-bond-sale)
- 2026-04-10: Carlyle caps redemptions at a $7B private credit fund after requests for 15.7% of shares (Bloomberg, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2026-04-10/carlyle-caps-private-credit-redemptions-video)

Not a timing tool. Not financial advice.